United States (USO) mixed on expected US stock draw

Crude futures were mixed during mid-morning trade in Tuesday, with the NYMEX WTI contract ticking up on expected US crude stock draws while the ICE Brent edged lower on indications of supply increases elsewhere.

Analysts surveyed Monday by S&P Global Platts were expecting latest US crude stocks data to show a 3.37 million-barrel draw for the week ended August 17 — they had also expected a decline in last week’s survey, but stocks instead posted a 6.81 million-barrel build.

The American Petroleum Institute is due to release its preliminary stocks report later Tuesday and the more definitive US Energy Information Administration report is due on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Brent prices reacted to supply news elsewhere, including reports that Saudi Arabia ramped up its crude exports, refinery runs and direct burn for power generation in June, which pressured prices lower.

Saudi exports rose 260,000 b/d month on month to 7.244 million b/d in June, after falling to a seven-month low in May, according to latest data from the Riyadh-based Joint Organizations Data Initiative.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 14.53.

The projected lower bound is: 13.01.

The projected closing price is: 13.77.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 3 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 32.0676. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 16 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 42.97. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 34 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -78. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.070 at 13.760. Volume was 16% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 27% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
13.690 13.800 13.655 13.760 17,522,630

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 13.88 14.12 13.03
Volatility: 30 34 29
Volume: 22,675,604 22,346,836 19,497,148

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 5.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 13 periods.